Cancer cases set to increase by 45% before 2030

Cancer Research UK warned today that the NHS must begin to plan now how it is going to deal with a predicted increase of 45% in the number of cancer cases in the next two decades.

By 2030, the number of cancer cases in the UK could rise to 432,000, compared with 298,000 in 2007, threatening to overwhelm NHS resources. It is thought the main reason for this is the aging and growing population.

In a study published in the British Journal of Cancer, male cancer cases are set to see the biggest rise, 55%, compared to a rise in female cases of 35%. The cancers predicted to be the biggest risers are prostate, oral, liver, malignant melanoma and kidney.

However, the survival rate amongst cancer patients is on the increase, with survival rates doubling in the last 40 years in the UK – a trend that is likely to continue with improving treatments.

Study author Professor Peter Sasieni, a Cancer Research UK epidemiologist, said that the predictions are important to the NHS “so we can understand where the future burden is on the NHS and also where health awareness messages need to be raised”.

Although the number of cancer cases is set to rise, cancer rates will remain stable over the 23-year period at around 400 per 100,000 men and 350 per 100,000 women per year. The study also predicted that the rate of breast cancer in women will decline by 7% by 2030.

Harpal Kumar, Cancer Research UK’s chief executive, said: “At a time when the finances of the health service are being squeezed, it is absolutely crucial that health commissioners plan now for a massive increase in demand for cancer services, to ensure we provide high quality care to all.

“As we develop ever more sophisticated ways to detect and treat cancer successfully, health planners must deploy resources more effectively to enable all patients to benefit from the latest developments and cutting edge new treatments.”