11.12.14
Antimicrobial resistance – 10 million deaths a year by 2050
Failing to tackle antimicrobial resistance (AMR) will lead to at least 10 million extra deaths per year and cost the global economy up to $100 trillion by 2050, according to a new report.
A “low estimate” of the current number of annual global deaths attributable to AMR is put at 700,000.
The figures from the first study by the Review on Antimicrobial Resistance, which was set up in July 2014 by prime minister David Cameron, will be used to help the organisation develop a package of recommendations by summer 2016 to tackle AMR.
Led by economist Jim O’Neill, the review’s ‘broad-brush estimate’ stated that the initial research, looking only at part of the impact of AMR, shows that a continued rise in resistance by 2050 would lead to 10 million people dying every year and a reduction of 2% to 3.5% in gross domestic product (GDP) globally.
The Review used two multidisciplinary research teams from RAND Europe and KPMG each to provide their own high-level assessments of the future impact of AMR, based on scenarios for rising drug resistance and economic growth to 2050.
The two studies show a different economic impact for each of the drug resistant infections they considered. E. coli, malaria and TB were the biggest drivers of the studies’ results. They found that malaria resistance leads to the greatest numbers of fatalities, while E. coli was the largest detractor from GDP, accounting for almost half the total economic impact in RAND’s results.
The report also highlights that countries that already have high malaria, HIV or TB rates are likely to see the greatest number of additional deaths as resistance to current treatments increases. These include India, Nigeria and Indonesia (malaria), Russia (TB) and countries in Africa (malaria and HIV).
Jim O’Neill, chairman of the Review on AMR, said: “Drug-resistant infections already kill hundreds of thousands a year globally, and by 2050 that figure could be more than 10 million. The economic cost will also be significant, with the world economy being hit by up to $100 trillion by 2050 if we do not take action.”
Public Health England (PHE) stated that AMR is a global problem no country can view itself in isolation. It added that international travel allows for both bacteria and viruses to spread around the world within hours causing disease in new populations and this has been seen in the spread of new strains of antibiotic resistant bacteria.
Professor Anthony Kessel, director for international public health at PHE, said: “This report is predicting that in just 36 years there will be an extra 10 million deaths worldwide from antibiotic resistance. If ever we needed a reminder of what a public health catastrophe looks like then this has to be it.
“Stopping resistance developing should be straight forward: prescribing the right antibiotic for the right infection for the right time and stopping infections spreading by practicing good infection control. However, in reality this can be difficult to achieve, particularly in countries where antibiotics are freely available or there is lack of sanitation and healthcare is limited.”
The review has called for “coherent international action” that spans drug regulation and antimicrobial drugs use across humans, animals and the environment. It added: “This is a looming global crisis, yet one which the world can avert if we take action soon.”
Professor Dame Sally Davies, chief medical officer for England, said: “This is a compelling piece of work, which takes us a step forward in understanding the true gravity of the threat. It demonstrates that the world simply cannot afford not to take action.”
Recently, the 2014 Longitude Prize, which is a challenge with a £10m prize fund to help solve the problem of global antibiotic resistance, was opened for submissions. It is being run by Nesta, supported by Innovate UK, the new name for the Technology Strategy Board, as the funding partner.
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