18.09.13
Huge drop in number of trusts expecting to hit cost targets
Financial directors from trusts and CCGs have severe doubts that the NHS will meet the £20bn savings target by 2015.
The King’s Fund’s latest Quarterly Monitoring Report, released today, shows that only 1 in 10 NHS finance directors asked thought the chances of the health service meeting the target was better than 50/50.
The number of trusts expecting to meet their own cost improvement targets for 2013/14 has also plummeted, from nearly 75% a year ago to just 33% now.
CCGs, however, remain more optimistic on their own organisation’s ability to hit cost targets, with 72% of commissioners expecting to succeed.
Professor John Appleby, chief economist at The King’s Fund, said: “The findings from our survey of finance directors have become significantly more pessimistic over the past 12 months, reflecting the growing pressures on the NHS. Now just over half way through the so-called Nicholson Challenge, it is clear the NHS will struggle to meet its £20bn productivity target, with potentially serious consequences for patient care. The reality for many hospitals is that they face an uncomfortable choice between whether to prioritise the quality of services for patients or allow performance in some areas to slip in order to balance the books.”
Elsewhere in the monitoring report, A&E remains problematic, with 241,000 patients (4.3%) spending four or more hours in A&E during the quarter. The King’s Fund says: “Although this is back within target range, it is the highest level for this quarter since 2004. With 61 hospitals breaching the Government’s target, this reinforces the challenge the NHS faces in managing pressures in A&E over the coming winter, despite the new funding announced last week by the secretary of state.”
There is better news on infections, with the number of C difficile and MRSA cases continuing to fall, while waiting times for treatment and the number of delayed transfers of care both remain ‘stable’.
Other findings from the survey of trust finance directors and CCG finance leads:
- 89% expect to be in surplus or to break even in 2013/14, but 11% expecting to be in deficit
- 31% said patient care in their area had got worse over the past year (‘improved’ – 14%, ‘stayed the same – 55%)
- 72% ‘pessimistic’ about the prospects for their local health economy over the coming year, only 10 per cent ‘optimistic’.
How is the health and social care system performing? is the ninth of The King’s Fund’s regular quarterly monitoring reports. The surveys were done in July.
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