By 2040, 9.1 million people will be living with major illness in England, according to a new report from the Health Foundation – 2.5 million more than the same figure in 2019.
This findings come from a four-year project the Health Foundation has conducted in partnership with the University of Liverpool, centring around ill health within the adult population of England.
The research projects that 19 out of the 20 health conditions studied will increase in prevalence; this includes kidney disease, diabetes and cancer.
Overall, the number of people living with a major health complication will total one in every five by the end of the next decade – from one in six in 2019.
With a lot of the growth relating to conditions like depression and diabetes which are predominantly dealt with in primary care and in the community, the Health Foundation says its research signals a need for more investment into prevention and early intervention initiatives.
This sentiment was echoed in NHS Providers’ response to the analysis. Miriam Deakin, the organisation's director of policy and strategy, said: "Prevention is better than cure. More support and money for public health services are vital to stave off poor health and ease pressure on the NHS.”
She went on to say: "We need coordinated government action to prevent ill health, which must start with tackling the root causes of why some people – such as those living in poverty and in deprived communities, with poor housing, poor access to transport or poor access to nutrition; ethnic minorities; and people with learning disabilities – are more likely to have worse physical and mental health outcomes.”
Around 80% of the predicted increase will occur in those aged 70 and over, with a residual jump in the rest of the working-age population – i.e., those between 20 and 69 years old.
The report also anticipates that progress made in some of the main causes of poor health – like smoking and cholesterol – will be offset by the impact of obesity as many of those who have been obese for a long period reach old age.
The Health Foundation warns that there is no panacea to tackle its projections and that supporting the public to manage their own health will be an increasingly prominent function of the NHS of tomorrow.
The think tank believes its research highlights the need for a long-term plan to radically modernise the health service, alongside the necessary funding to affect any outlined change.
The report is the first in what will be a series of publications from the Health Foundation’s REAL Centre which will look to support policymakers by analysing patterns of illness of the next two decades. This autumn will see a similar release on the implications for health inequalities.
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