31.05.17
NHS faces £500m bill if British expats lose EU healthcare rights post-Brexit
Brexit could leave the NHS footing a bill of almost half a billion pounds if British nationals are forced to return to the UK to receive free healthcare.
This is the headline finding of a study released today by leading think tank the Nuffield Trust called ‘Getting a Brexit Deal that Works for the NHS’.
Researchers looked into the effects of a scenario where thousands of British citizens living abroad were forced to come home after their right to healthcare in Europe was taken away due to the UK leaving the European Union.
It also analysed what would happen to health and social care if EU staff in these industries were not granted the right to continue working in the UK.
With 190,000 British pensioners living in the EU, the Nuffield Trust found that if they all came back to the UK to receive care, the NHS would be looking at an enormous bill of around £1bn, which goes down to around £500m when the half a billion the UK currently spends on the EU S1 healthcare scheme is taken away.
It also identified that the NHS would need 900 more beds – the equivalent of two hospitals the size of London’s St Mary’s Hospital – to accommodate for the extra patients.
And if this situation materialises, the health and social care workforce is also likely to be dealt a severe blow, as Brexit could leave the sector with a shortage of 70,000 workers in social care and 22,000 nurses in healthcare.
“The NHS and social care were already under pressure from tight funding settlements and growing staffing problems well before the EU Referendum last year,” commented report author Mark Dayan, Nuffield Trust policy and public affairs analyst.
“But if we handle it badly, leaving the EU could make these problems even worse, given the potential impact on both the strength of the UK economy and the supply of overseas staff to both health and social care services.”
However, the report did also find that Brexit could yield some positive effects. Though the ‘Brexit bus’ promise of £350m extra per week for the NHS is clearly not going to materialise, the extra cash the UK will enjoy from not paying EU membership fees could give the NHS a much-needed boost in the short term.
“It is possible that extra funds could be found for the NHS from any cancellation of Britain’s EU membership fees,” Dayan stated, “but whether or not these benefits will outweigh the significant staffing and financial costs Brexit may impose on already stretched services remains to be seen.
“That depends largely on the NHS being recognised as a significant priority as we enter some of the most important negotiations in Britain’s history.”
And Dr Mark Porter, BMA council chair added: “These figures are a stark reminder that with the NHS at breaking point, politicians must keep the health service and its patients at the forefront during Brexit negotiations and reduce the impact that leaving the EU will have on health and social care across the UK.”
Dr Porter also warned that NHS resources could fall, but also existing chronic staff shortages could be worsened as half of the 10,000 EEA doctors working in the NHS were considering leaving the UK. “This would seriously impact patient care across the country and increase what are often already unacceptable delays for treatment,” he added.
“It is vital that the next government ensures long-term stability for the NHS by granting permanent residence to EEA doctors working in the UK; maintains the current working time regulations; protects life-changing medical research which benefits from European funding; and ensures that leaving the EU will not delay the UK’s access to vital pharmaceuticals,” Dr Porter concluded.
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