Local NHS leaders have issued a stark warning as the NHS braces for its busiest period of the year.
With winter pressures mounting and much of the country covered in a blanket of snow, the NHS is being placed in a position of "national vulnerability.” The latest winter SitRep reveals that flu cases in hospitals have surged to over 5,000 by the end of last week, rising at an alarming rate. NHS England reports that the pressure from Covid-19 continues, while cases of RSV and norovirus in hospitals are also higher than last year.
Local NHS leaders, in discussions with the NHS Confederation, have highlighted several key issues. More NHS trusts are expected to declare critical incidents in the coming days and weeks. Primary care is already experiencing a significant increase in demand following the holiday period. The UK Health Security Agency has issued a Cold-Health Alert for all regions of England, expected to last until 8 January, further exacerbating the situation.
Key Challenges Faced by NHS Trusts:
- Spike in Flu Cases: NHS leaders anticipate flu cases to peak over the next two weeks, adding significant demand pressures on local services.
- Staff Absences: Increasing flu cases are leading to high levels of staff absenteeism, impacting service delivery.
- High Acuity and Demand: Trusts are seeing more patients with severe health conditions, affecting not just the elderly but also individuals with long-term health conditions.
- Infection Prevention and Control: High levels of flu and norovirus are making it difficult to isolate patients with serious underlying health conditions, leading to ward closures and longer waits for beds.
- Lack of Beds: Bed capacity is at 100% in many trusts, with patients facing long waits and trusts struggling to discharge patients due to a lack of social care support.
- Re-directed Capacity: Extra capacity put in place for winter, such as same-day emergency care, is being converted into regular ward capacity, increasing four-hour waits in A&E.
Commenting on the ongoing winter pressures, NHS Confederation Chief Executive Matthew Taylor said:
“The NHS has done all it can in advance to mitigate risks to patients this winter, but we should be under no illusions that the service is in a position of national vulnerability as the intense pressures we are now seeing start to grip local services.
“These winter stats bear out what local NHS leaders have been telling us directly in recent days – that the NHS is facing huge demand, from sicker patients, with very high levels of flu to deal with. The next two to three weeks will likely be the busiest period of the year for many local services and we need to acknowledge the strain that this will place on staff and services.
“We encourage the public to do all they can to alleviate pressure on local services. That includes getting vaccinated for flu and RSV, as well as by making sure we all use the right NHS services at the right time. 111 should be the first port of call so that patients can easily access the appropriate advice and be directed to the most effective care, while pharmacies offer a range of services that can prevent the need to go to your GP or A&E.
“NHS staff know this is far from ideal, but we ask the public to understand the pressure that local services will continue to be under for the next few weeks.”
Despite these challenges, the NHS is striving to deliver safe care for patients. Measures include adding thousands more beds, increasing ambulance call handlers, expanding same-day emergency care services, and promoting flu and RSV vaccinations. However, flu vaccination rates remain lower than desired.
NHS trusts are also reintroducing mask-wearing in vulnerable areas and finding new ways to increase bed capacity. The public is encouraged to access the right services at the right time, get vaccinated if eligible, and take extra care during the expected icy conditions.
As the NHS faces one of its toughest winters, the combined efforts of healthcare providers and the public will be crucial in navigating these unprecedented pressures.
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